Being Sure and Not Sure
Have you ever been asked a question and you were not completely sure of the answer? Maybe you said the first thing that came to mind, even though you were not totally confident — because saying 'I do not know' felt awkward. Here is a big secret that the best thinkers in the world have discovered: saying 'I am not sure' is one of the smartest things you can do. It is not a sign of weakness. It is a sign of honesty and wisdom.
The Confidence Scale
Knowing things is not all-or-nothing. It is not just 'I know this for certain' or 'I have no idea.' There is a whole range in between, and good thinkers pay attention to where they fall on that range. At one end: you are completely certain. You know your name. You know the sky is blue. You know two plus two equals four. Nothing could change these for you. In the middle: you have pretty good reason to believe something, but you have not checked it yourself. You have seen evidence, heard from trustworthy people, and it seems solid — but you are open to being wrong. At the other end: you have a hunch or a guess, but little actual evidence. You might be right, or you might be wrong, and you honestly do not know which.
How sure you are depends on how much evidence and how many trustworthy sources you have. Good thinkers are honest about where they fall on the confidence scale — and they say so out loud!
Think about a weather forecast. A weather scientist does not say 'it will definitely rain tomorrow.' They say 'there is a seventy percent chance of rain.' That means: based on all the evidence we have, rain is fairly likely — but we are not certain. We are being honest about our uncertainty. That kind of honesty is incredibly useful. If the forecast said 'definite rain,' you might cancel a picnic. If it said 'seventy percent,' you might pack an umbrella but still go. Knowing how sure someone is changes how you act on the information. That is why honesty about certainty matters so much.
Flashcards — click each card to reveal the answer
Here are some wonderfully honest phrases that great thinkers use all the time: 'I think so, but I am not completely sure.' 'I am pretty confident about this, but you might want to double-check.' 'I do not know — let us find out!' 'I used to think this, but I changed my mind when I found new evidence.' None of these phrases make you sound weak. They make you sound careful, honest, and trustworthy. People who say these things are the ones others turn to when they really need accurate information.
Sometimes people sound very confident even when they actually have little evidence. A loud, certain voice does not always mean strong evidence. Always ask: what is the evidence behind this claim, not just how sure does this person sound?
Your friend says: 'I am not completely sure, but I think the library closes at five.' What does this tell you?
A scientist says there is a sixty percent chance a new treatment will work. Is this a bad or a good thing to say?
Fill in the missing word.
My Certainty Thermometer
- Draw a tall thermometer on a piece of paper. At the bottom write 'Just a Guess.' In the middle write 'Pretty Sure.' At the top write 'Completely Certain.'
- Think of five things you know or believe. Write each one on a sticky note or slip of paper.
- For each one, place it on the thermometer at the level that matches how sure you feel.
- For each thing you placed, ask yourself: what evidence do I have? Why am I at this level?
- Share your thermometer with a family member and explain why you placed each thing where you did. Did talking about the evidence change any of your placements?